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Bonus:
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Case Study in Draft Busting: The North Carolina Tarheels

With Florida's vaunted repeat champion teams entering the NBA this year, being picked at #3, 7, 9, 41, and 52, I got to thinking about the last individual college team with such rosy draft prospects and college success, the Carolina Tarheels of the 2005 NBA draft. Essentially, not one of them has proven themselves to be effective NBA players yet, which would seem like disturbing news to the Hawks, Timberwolves, Bulls, and Blazers. But let's break it down: how is this new crop of Florida boys similar to the 2005 NC team? How are they different? Will they ultimately bust the same way the 'heels did? As usual, I have no idea at the start of the post, so hopefully we'll find something more conclusive than in my point guard week starting post, which yielded disappointing results.

So let's get down to it.

Raymond Felton:

An ultra-quick, pass-first true point guard who had quarterbacked his team to an NCAA championship, Felton could well have been considered the safest pick of the 3,4,5 combo of points in 2005, as he had more of a history of success than Chris Paul and, at 6-1, didn't have his height concerns, and had the athletic talents to save him from the "college body, college game" concerns surrounding Deron Williams. Paul had the best rookie point guard year in recent memory, and is generally considered to already be a member of the elite PG tribunal with Nash and Kidd, while Williams shook off a subpar rookie season and led his team to a Conference Championship birth. Meanwhile, Felton toiled for the lowly Bobcats, averaging a seemingly solid 13 points and 7 assists on with an abysmal 38.4% FG and 3 turnovers per game.

Why has Williams fared so much worse than Paul and Williams, and the average NBA point guard? First of all, Felton is a worse passer than those two, although that's a bit unfair because while Felton is certainly a very good passer, Williams and Paul are spectacular passers, averaging 10+ assists per 48 minutes with stellar turnover numbers.

The real problem with Felton is that he can't score. IT IS NOT THAT HE CAN'T SHOOT. Allow me to explain. Around draft time, teams tend to look at a few things from point guards: Passing ability, Speed, Outside Shooting, Size, Leadership, and Defense. Felton's only weakness in those categories is outside shooting; with a .423% mark on jumpers, he's in the bottom half of NBA guards. However, there are many extremely effective point guards in the NBA who shoot from outside just as badly, if not worse, than Felton. Williams only shoots .468%, and Paul only shoots .433%.

Raymond Felton's unforgivable sin is that he can't finish inside, and he isn't too good at drawing fouls. Felton has blinding speed, which allows him to take a full 1/3rd of his shots from "inside"; that's more than Paul and Williams, who are at 30% and 32%, and draws a comparable amount of fouls. However, while Paul and Williams can finish inside at clips of .544% and .552%, respectably, Felton's "inside" mark is all the way down at .458%. Devin Harris and Tony Parker don't hit effectively from outside either, but their "inside" marks are both well over .600%.

The error made in projecting Felton was that his low FG% was due to poor shooting, which is a forgivable weakness that can be fixed over time, either by improving the shot or building your game around going to the hole. However, when a quick guard can't finish inside, he will have serious, possibly unsolvable problems being effective at the next level. Teams need to be wary of the difference between "bad shooter" and "bad scorer" when drafting players like Felton.

Shaun May and Rashad McCants:

There's probably something in here about Rashad being a dreaded "tweener," a shooter who really isn't shooting guard size,(different from Dwayne Wade, whose athleticism makes him not really a tiny shooting guard but a freaking dynamo who is faster and stronger than any shooting guard he faces), and May being a guy who could dominate the paint in college but doesn't have the body to do so in the pros, but mainly they've both had major knee surgeries. That's not good.

Marvin Williams:

We all know what happened with Marvin Williams; he never quite became a star, averaged 13 points per game last year on 43% shooting, and is probably the 4th-best forward on the Atlanta Hawks. Meanwhile, Deron Williams and Chris Paul, the players picked directly behind him, are on their way to becoming all-stars while the Hawks only now have a player that resembles a point guard.

Really, Marvin went ahead and combined all the ways a prospect can bust; like Felton, he's a poor finisher inside. (.507 eFG% on "inside" shots, which is abysmal for a forward.) Like McCants and May, he really hasn't found an NBA position that works for him; he's not enough of a physical player for the 4, and he lacks the skills to play the 3. Most importantly, Marvin never really developed "be-the-man-ittude"; instead of a player whose gifts were stifled by a college system and busted out in the pros, he was a talented 6th man in college, and seems content to play that role in the pros, despite the fact he's more gifted than 90% of the players he faces. It's honestly tough to predict which guys will bust out; just look at Andre Iguodala. On top of the standard hidden plagues that hinder his teammates, he's a huge Dunleavy head case, making him the biggest disappointment of all on a team full of them.

Who doesn't love a link dump at 2 in the morning?

I got an email today from the fine people at HoopsGm.com, which told me that they were fans of my site and asked me politely for a link dump, which of course I have too much journalistic integrity to give them. They're a fantasy basketball site, and browsing around there, it looks like they've really got their poop figured out. Seriously, they've got scatter plots and everything, and it looks like they might be on to some cool stuff over there.

I'm not a big roto basketball guy; I'm getting back into the game in an MVN league for the first time in a few years this year, and I plan to pick LeBron first, get Baron Davis and Stephen Jackson at all costs, and ultimately lose. But if you're a daily reader of this site, not only do you rule, you're probably pretty obsessed with sports, which means you play fantasy. So if you do, hop over to their site, because they have put in a lot of hard work to analyze fake basketball, which makes my time spent analyzing real basketball seem meaningful. Also, did I mention that they took the time to email me and say nice things about my site? That means they're awesome. Go there now, especially if you're still awake right now.

It's never too early to preview the 2008 draft

I love the NBA draft. It might be my favorite day of the year. On draft night, the game exists entirely in imagination-we get to see Greg Oden as an evolutionary center with Russell's defense, Shaq's domination of the paint, and Wilt's ridiculous athleticism for a big man, Kevin Durant as a 6-10 uber-star who can dominate anywhere from the 3-point line to the low block, Adam Morrison calmly draining contested jumper after contested jumper, JJ Redick grabbing kick-outs from Dwight Howard and filling up the net from long range. On draft night, we don't have to deal with the reality of microfracture surgery, back problems, or Adam Morrison going 3-16. There are no busts on draft night. Because of that spirit, I like to think about the draft as early and often as I can. Here are my thoughts on the big draft prospects so far, with the ones I don't know much about, like Michael Beasley, left out for no real pertinent reason:

O.J. Mayo:

The best-known name in the 2008 class, as well as the one I'll be watching the most closely because he's my classmate at USC. I have had one encounter with O.J. Mayo, on my second night here at about 1:00 in the morning during pre-rush parties, and it went like this:

(The author is inebriated as all hell, and attached to an equally inebriated girl whose build could best be described as Barkley-like. The author and said girl are about to do something that both parties would have regretted immensely, when the author sobers up slightly and decides the best course of action is to make a Larry Brown-esque exit. A few stumbles away, notices that several USC basketball players, including Taj Gibson and O.J., are sitting on a wall, calmly observing the proceedings and hearing praise from various travelers.)

Person in front of me: Hey, O.J., you're going to kick ass this year. You're so much better than Love it's ridiculous, man. (leaves, I step in)

Me(in a charming slur): The real question is whether or not he's better than Rose. And the answer is yes, man. (High-fives O.J.-also note that the author is still capable of providing pertinent draft analysis in any state) Man, I was like, thinking about going to USC, and then like, I saw you were going here, and I was like, now I'm definitely going to USC, because, like O.J.'s here.

Other basketball player, leaning over: Damn, (unprintable and inaccurate racial slur), how loaded is you?

O.J.(cold sober): Where you going, man?

Me: Away from that chick in the blue I just hooked up with. (points to girl)

(The entire basketball team starts cracking up)

O.J.: Have a good night, man.

(The author runs at full-speed towards the nearest frat house)

So me and O.J. are pretty much best friends now, even though I didn't remember to ask him for an interview or reveal my plan to get an apartment with him and Lil' Romeo next year and sell it as a reality show. My friend Marianne, who never watches basketball, has a writing 140 and Black Social Movements class with O.J., who calls her "Mar," and from her I know that O.J. is extremely nice, goes to every one of his classes, including lectures, which is more than you can say about the author, really works hard and wants to learn in every class, and gets tons of autograph requests, which he obliges wearily. That's my inside info on O.J. Now for the pure basketball:

Strengths: Incredibly pure jump shot, amazing handle, good court vision and capable of making great passes, extremely quick first step, amazingly polished shooting ability.

Weaknesses: Tends to be a shoot-first player who falls in love with his jumper from time to time, and hence will have nights when he's off and shoots a low percentage (like in the McDonald's game), has the skills to be a lead guard, but plays more like a shooting guard, and at 6-4 he doesn't have the ideal height to be a shooting guard, nor does he have the shocking athleticism of a Dwayne Wade to deal with it immediately.

Outlook: O.J. almost definitely won't fall out of the top 3 or 4 slots in the draft, but without dominating in college, he could easily slip behind Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley in the draft of their more seductive freak athleticism. Being a good 'SC fan, I don't think taking the college game by storm will be a big problem for O.J. Nobody will have a brighter spotlight on them this season, and nobody will come up bigger.

Movie Comparison: Dreamgirls (Huge early hype about him, beautifully polished, doesn't have the ceiling of a Babel, will at some point encounter an inevitable backlash, but is still a pretty damn good movie.)

Derrick Rose:

Strengths: Holy Christ, is this guy athletic. His YouTube makes me feel happy when I've bombed a mid-term. (Yes, YouTube is a major scouting resource for me. ESPN has showcases, scouts who watch his high school games, statistical breakdowns, and reports from private workouts and interviews-I have YouTube and nicotine. I could make a fancy argument, aided by Malcolm Gladwell, about how a too much information can be just as damaging too little in making major decisions, but basically I'm writing about this because I can. Also, has Chad Ford ever gotten smashed and told a top-3 prospect that he was the man? I think not.) But getting back on point, this guy has the type of hops that just don't seem to make sense-it looks like he's in Like Mike 3 sometimes. (There has already been one sequel to Like Mike. You needed to know that.) And he doesn't just have dunk-contest hops-he finishes with authority, and doesn't need a big running start to get fancy. He can also get to the rim at will, because of his speed and ridiculous crossover. And by the way, he's a full 6-4, with a scary-solid build. Most excitingly, all the reports on him say that he's actually a pure point guard with great court vision and a pass-first mentality, which is extremely rare for a kid athletically gifted enough to score at will at every level he's played at. If he is indeed ready to play the point right away, he's far and away the most athletic pure point guard in the league, maybe ever.

Weaknesses: Where O.J.'s scoring is smooth-flowing and meticulously refined, Rose's offensive game is often a bit clunky-his outside shot is a weakness right now, and often times his shots from the 5-10 foot range are bizarre off-balance things that look like the shots guys playing "21" take when they can't get to the hole instead of a clean-looking pull-up or fadeaway. And while his modesty and shot selection have been points of praise among league executives, because there's no reason at all for the best player on the court his entire life should be extremely self-confident, that could, along with his pass-first mentality, mean that he won't be able to take over a game the way Mayo can.

Outlook: Because of his hops and crossover, the most common comparison for Rose has been a young Steve Francis without all those bad tendencies, which would be pretty cool. His pass-first mentality and size has led to Jason Kidd comparisons, although Kidd couldn't take the air out of a gym the way Rose can. Those are really the only two comparisons draft experts have been able to come up with, which makes sense, because it's not like a 6-3 point guard with a great crossover, dunk-contest hops, a running-back body, great passing ability, and a shaky outside shot was one of the playoffs' biggest stars last year, and it's not like he's the namesake of this website.

Oh, wait. Rose's game reminds me very strongly of Baron's, and given what we just saw what an injury/attitude-free Baron can do to the best team in the league, people should be very excited about Rose, especially since he's even more athletic than Baron, especially at this stage in his career. Like Baron, it may take Rose a while to balance out the demands of being a scorer and a passer, but when he blossoms(no pun intended), he could well be the best player in this deep draft. His team-first mentality and combine-ready gifts will allow him to survive a non-dominant college campaign, because players like him are often shackled by the coaching and surrounding talent in college situations (look at Rajon Rondo), and barring injury, he'll be in the discussion for the first overall pick.

Movie Comparison: Babel (well-known but not a household name, ridiculously high ceiling, some obvious but ultimately insignificant flaws, slightly disappointing box-office run/college season, late Oscar/No.1 pick push upon review)

Kevin Love:

Strengths: A banger down low who can scrap for rebounds and tough baskets, extremely refined post moves, a good stroke with range out to (allegedly) the NBA 3-point line, the best outlet passer since Bill Walton, team player with high basketball IQ. Other than that, his game needs a lot of work.

Weaknesses: Not particularly tall or athletic, goes to UCLA, has a dad who's borderline insane.

Outlook: First of all, let's address the character issues of Love/Mayo. Mayo has been billed as another Iverson-like young punk who cares only about himself and even smokes the demon weed, while Love is the white model citizen who wants the team to succeed first and saves babies. First of all, it should be obvious is nothing like the picture that has been painted of him, although it would probably take a whole other column to reach the extent of my anger about this. Second, the most popular comparison for Love is Bill Walton, because of their position, passing ability, college, and skin color, which is good because Walton is now a beloved personality who teaches us all about Canada during the middle of a game. (Quote from the FIBAs: So while Canada is losing this game right now, we must stop to remember that this is the country that gave us the light bulb.") O.J. has been accused of Marijuana possession one time, and those charges were dropped when it was revealed that it belonged to a friend. This has naturally been blown out of proportion by people who want to paint O.J. as just another punk kid. But without even touching how prevalent casual marijuana use is among people my age (smell my hall sometime), has everyone forgotten that Bill Walton loved weed? He got special permission from John Wooden to blaze after every game, for the love of god. Just thought that was interesting.

Love is this year's "crap, I have no idea how good this guy will be in the pros" guy because of his limited athleticism; he's a top-10 pick on DraftExpress, but he's all the way at 17 on NBAdraft.net, which has Hasheem Thabeet, who may or may not be able to make a layup with both hands, at 12. His rebounding is a question-for every Paul Milsap, there's an Ike Diogu. His scoring is a question. Whether his Unseld act will work in the pros is a question mark.

Ultimately, like most skilled but not crazy-athletic prospects, I think he'd be a great complimentary piece, but will break hearts if he's put as the face of a franchise. Not only would a subpar college season mean that UCLA will be bad, but it'll make him fall to a team that will use his talents well instead of throw him straight to the dogs, so that's what I'm rooting for. And if he could have a bad season, do bad at the combine, and end up with a hooker in his room, subsequently causing him all the way to the Cavs and clean up boards, score garbage buckets and pick-and-pops with LeBron, and toss LeBron outlets in the full-court, I would be a happy man. David Stern, here's your next secret project.

Movie Comparison: Little Miss Sunshine (ceiling limited because of genre/athleticism concerns, about as well-done as can be, unique-seeming, loved by casual fans, backlash will come from the biggest film geeks/draft experts)

Brook Lopez:

Strengths: He's seven feet tall, athletic, and alive, which means he's a top-15 pick automatically.

Weaknesses: He can't score. I'm really only doing this one because I like the movie comparison. Also, I hate Stanford. A lot.

Movie Comparison: The Heartbreak Kid. Everyone knows that movies with Ben Stiller screaming all the time and prominently feature jokes about sunburns, deviated septums, fat people, emasculating sex, and Carlos Mencia are going to suck. But for some reason, studios put their full weight into these movies time after time, only to be shocked when they turn into a fiasco. It's the same way with 7-footers who show athleticism, can't score, and fall out of the top 7 picks-good centers don't fall out of the top 5. It's that simple. So if a center is available at 9 or 12, he's not going to be good. But look at that, Patrick O'Bryant was the #9 pick two years ago, and Hilton Armstrong was a top-15 pick last year. And they've both sucked. Big surprise.

Well, there you have it. I was going to try and make this more comprehensive, but I'm already pushing 2,300 words, it's almost 1:00 in the morning, and I haven't had drunken encounters with most of the other top-10 prospects. Enjoy your Wednesday.

The Cavs and Major League 2: Redux

Hey all, sorry I haven't gotten a post up recently; I don't want you to think that I'm going into a downward spiral after that last semi-depressed post (I think the Sideways picture made the post seem much sadder than it actually was, but I liked it anyways; at the time of the post, I identified pretty strongly with both someone who was on the cusp of something supposed to be a major positive turning point in his life, only to be scared by the implications of it and retreat to doing what he had been doing before without fear of repercussion, AND the writer who was convinced that his career and life were going nowhere. So I liked it. But I'm not sad. And thank you so much to all of you who commented on the last post; believe it or not, that meant a lot to me, and is the type of thing that keeps me writing.) In fact, I finally got around to actually posting something about USC football today: here's the link.

I'd really like to get a fresh post basketball post up before the week is over, but unfortunately I have a paper due tomorrow and don't have the time; I started doing a post on how I think Boston's troika is going to work out, but ended up hating it after a few paragraphs. So I'm going to recycle a post from my message-board days, which I originally put up during the Cavs' midseason swoon, when LeBron looked officially disinterested and the general public was getting ready to write off the Cavaliers. This is definitely one of my favorite pieces I ever wrote for RCF, (my absolute favorite one is this one, which I definitely wish I had written when I was blogging; that might be my favorite thing I've ever written, and I wish more people could have seen it.) and I feel even better about it now that the Cavs' season ended up mirroring the Major League 2's Indians even more; after losing to the hated White Sox after a miraculous run to the playoffs in Major League, in Major League 2, the Indians bounced back from their difficulties and ended up beating the White Sox and making the World Series at last. (I get predictions right every now and then. Put that in your pipe and smoke it, Kevin Durant fans. Also, he's officially a shooting guard to start the season.) Here's the original post, with new thoughts in italics:

As bad sports movies that regularly appear on cable go, it doesn't get much better than Major League 2. In case you don't remember, or haven't seen the movie (not a bad call), the plot goes as follows: In the first Major League, our heroes the Cleveland Indians were fresh off of an incredible pennant run, which they attained on the back of their young phenom pitcher, Rick "Wild Thing" Vaughn. They were eliminated in the playoffs, but came back the next year with high hopes, as they hadn't lost anyone important from the previous year. (Except for Wesley Snipes, but he was replaced by Omar Epps.) However, things didn't go as planned for our beloved Indians. Almost all the players went into a funk for one reason or another, and it looked like their success had been a fluke, and that they would never win the World Series that they wanted so badly. You probably know where I'm going with this-if you really need it explained to you, yikes. Let's break it down, player by player-

Rick "Wild Thing" Vaughn, who had carried the team with his blazing fastball and bad-ass persona, came into camp with a new attitude. He held off of throwing his fastball, talking about the need to "conserve his arm" and instead attacked hitters with his new assortment of off-speed stuff, which was mediocre at best. On top of that, his newfound obession with image and making money off the court made his passion for the game leave, and he ended up losing his heat for much of the movie. Obviously, that's LeBron, despite the fact that "Wild Thing" became AV's nickname. Just like Wild Thing, LeBron came up huge at the hugest time last season; after choking early in the series, he came back with beyond a vengeance and destroyed the Pistons in game 5, although he's still spending a healthy amount of time focusing on his image. Additionally, his determination to add a jump shot and post moves to his game reminds me too much of Rick Vaughn's determination to add ineffective off-speed pitches to his arsenal to supplement his unhittable fastball. LeBron, you're completely unstoppable when you drive to the basket. Just go. Last year, his switching from an attack mentality to a passive need to shoot fadeaways nearly made me chew a hole in my own flesh; if he drives even less because of the new facets to his game, I'm going to go crazy. And, for the record, I'm a huge supporter of LeBron working his jump shot and even more excited about the possibility of post moves, but Major League 2 has been Nostradamus-like so far, and this scares me. Okay, I'm not making sense anymore. It's 2:20 in the morning and I've been trying to make progress on an immigration paper for an hour and a half. Cut me some slack.

Willie Mays Hays, played by Omar Epps, had been the fastest/most effective leadoff hitter in the league last season, but came into camp nursing his injuries and foolishly attempting to hit for power instead of just putting the ball on the ground and running. That's Larry, who's nursing his glass ankle and trying to be a 3-point shooter instead of the slasher he's supposed to be. I don't have much else to say about this one; we're all hoping for the best and expecting the worst for Larry this year.


Jake Taylor, the heroic catcher played by Tom Berenger, is a solid clubhouse leader and veteran presence, but his extreme age has deteriorated his skills to the point where he's not kept on the roster, and is instead kept on as an assistant coach so that talented, eager, and inexperienced Rube Baker can come on and be productive, eventually serving as the downtrodden team's spark plug. It's Snow and Boobie. Called it called it called it. You know what it is.

Jack Parkman is the team's most talented player other than Vaughn, but his horrible attitude and desire to get paid causes him to be traded to Chicago, where he continues to produce/be a complete douchebag, until he finally gets bitten in the ass by karma at the end of the movie. There's Carlos Boozer! Now that Boozer effectively destroyed my Warriors on the boards, I hate him even more, and the fact that the whole Drew/Andy for cheap is just as good for Boozer for expensive! argument is becoming more and more untrue makes me crazy. Grr.

Pedro Cerrano(Played by President David Palmer) is the team's cleanup hitter, a man who has boundless power but is also a complete nut, costing the team games because of his need to save a bird, and just generally being a giant vagina because of his newfound commitment to Bhuddism, which nearly cancels out his immense natural talent. Drew Gooden, everybody. Just like Pedro, Drew had his redemption early in the playoffs; Pedro was one of the only ones who stuck around for all three movies, which is appropriate because I'm sure Drew's never going away.

Isuro Tanaka is an import from Japan, and despite his limited English, he comes in, plays hard every day, and gets up in the rest of the team's face in order to inspire them to play hard. Meet Andy. Later in the season, this could also have applied to Pavlovic; in the third movie, Isuro had quit baseball to run a mini-golf place, which is like Andy going to Europe.

Roger Dorn has made the transformation from overpaid, spoiled ballplayer who didn't play defense to the owner of the team, and even though his skills are now nonexistant, he still thinks the world revolves around him, at one point asking, "Do you think April's too early to have a Roger Dorn Night?" Damon Jones. Even more true now than when I wrote it.

I can't find anyone in the movie who resembles Z, or anyone on the Cavs who resembles that cute chick from Dazed and Confused who gets Vaughn to stop being such a pussy and throw heat again, but that's not too bad.

Finally, let's not forget the team's obnoxious, loudmouth fans, who instantly turn on the team when they begin losing, and especially have it in for Rick Vaughn, who they mercilessly ridicule, giving him the idiotic nickname "Vile thing" and eventually making him want to give up pitching. Even when the Indians make the playoffs, the fan says "We'll only blow it anyways," and seems genuinely thrilled by the team's failures up until the last scene of the movie, when the Indians win the World Series after Vaughn refinds his heat and get a clutch strikeout, at which point the fan proclaims "I believed in him all along!" Bill Simmons, everybody!

So why am I posting this? A few reasons.
#1, it's really weird that our team has this many similarities between a bad sports movie about a Cleveland team.

#2, I'm optimistic that LeBron and the team in general will turn it on like the Indians did, and quiet all the doubters and haters. Not being a homer and saying we're doing fantastic, just saying I have faith that this team is going to pull through this; remember last year, when LBJ wasn't an MVP candidate at mid-season, and everyone was ready to end the season early and hand the Pistons the championship. I could say this in any number of threads, but it's not where you start or middle, it's where you finish. We've got problems now, sure, although Boobie looks like he could be a solution to our biggest one(love, love, love his shot), but that's not the same as having problems in the off-season. Maybe it's because my hometown team is the Warriors, who I can't remember ever making the playoffs, and whose "superstar" is crazy Baron Davis, but I'm thrilled to be part of a team that's definitely headed to the playoffs with a player as talented as LeBron. (Not going to get into just exactly how good he is now, this isn't the right time.) Gives you some perspective on just how hard the Warriors came out of nowhere after the Dunleavy/Jackson trade. Also, looking back over this makes me feel like Yoda. Well, thanks for reading. Fresh posts next week.

A Few Thoughts About Nothing In Particular

Hey everyone. I got linked by TrueHoop again today, but the link was (at my request) to my more "formal" site that I write at for free, MVN, which was new-I appreciate the publicity going to an established site like Cavalier Attitude and passionate writers like Amar and James, but at the same time I'm feeling a wee bit of remorse right now, because if Henry's going to link me there, my little swatch of internet here will slowly but surely fade into obscurity, and I really like it here. I love my USC-colored pallet that is very striking but makes things a little harder to read. I like my picture of Baron's Fedora. I like the name Truth In A Bullet Fedora.

I've been so eager to jump from being a "blogger" to a "writer" that I never really stopped to appreciate just how much I love my little blog. I love being able to write about what I want at any length; unless I reach Simmons status, I can't envision a real sportswriting job that would allow me to pontificate on how Dan Fegan would try to get me laid. I love posting under a pseudonym that is essentially made up of my last name, but still makes me feel mysterious. I love my little sitemeter, and feel a pang of sorrow, because if the link had gone here today, in all likelihood I would have been pushed over 31,000 hits, which is more than the undergraduates at my college, which I would have considered a big moral victory. I like being in charge of my blog, and knowing that people are spending their valuable time to go on an internet detour just to see what I think. I like commenting on my own articles and feeling like I'm descending from Olympus to do it.

Simply put, my voice reigns supreme here, and everywhere else it's just another in the crowd. On MVN today, I got no happy little ballhype message in my inbox that said I'd been linked, no random surge of comments, (not even on MVN-the two posts I've had linked by TrueHoop and not cause a ruckus of any sort were the ones that made fairly safe declarations and applied them to my personal life, although none of the stuff in this post was anywhere near being true. I guess people don't want to comment unless they can express a bold opinion of their own. It's a bummer, because I like writing posts like this and the Ferry's desk piece a million times more than a breakdown of Durant's game.) There was no big jump on my little sitemeter, no nothing-just a vague knowledge that more people had gone to my site than go there normally. It made me sad.

Right now, TBF is at a crossroads; it's done well enough to get me some recognition from writers I absolutely adore (honestly, you should see the emails I send them back-I sound like a 12-year old Justin Timberlake fan) and the occasional visit from John Q. Sports Fan, but not quite well enough to get a substantial daily readership. (If you're reading this, you're one of my 100-200 daily viewers. You Rule.) I was thinking about bringing in one of my friends to put up daily bullets and make this the kind of place that people would put in their bookmarks instead of glance at every 2-3 weeks, and sent him out an email, but now I'm wavering, because I'm just not sure that's where my path is going to lead me. I know in my head that keeping my links going to MVN is probably better in the long run, but in my heart I want to make this place work, even though it has no possibility to produce revenue.

In any case, I'm going to enjoy TBF while it lasts, and expect a post that has no aspirations of any kind of wide recognition sometime in the near future. Good day, few faithful readers.

Dan In Real Life

So training camp is about to start, and the Cavaliers still haven't re-upped two of their best rotation players, Sasha Pavlovic and Anderson Varejao. The Pavlovic situation is ridiculous; after giving Damon Jones and Donyell Marshall solid money, and Larry Freaking Hughes a max-dollar deal, they don't want to pay decent money for a 24-year old athletic slasher who plays extremely good defense and shoots 40% from 3-point range. Pay him now, Danny.

The Varejao situation is a good deal more complicated; Varejao is a great defender and rebounder, runs the pick-and-roll effectively with LeBron, finds himself on the floor in crunch-time, and should absolutely be starting over Drew Gooden. However, his agent, Dan Fegan, is complicating matters by saying that he should be getting $10 million a year, using his restricted status to essentially play "chicken" with the Cavalier brass. (Some good reactions to the situation can be found at my site, MVN, by my colleagues Amar and James-James' column even features yelling in capital letters. I suggest reading it in a Stephen A. Smith voice.)

Fegan's had himself a big summer-he's Yi Jianlian's agent as well, and as we all know, Yi's holdout was bitter indeed, and nearly caused an international incident. We of the G-State faithful fondly remember Fegan as the guy who orchestrated Mike Dunleavy, Troy Murphy, and Jason Richardson's ridiculous contracts, and made Gilbert Arenas leave town by preying on his insecurity and making him believe that the Warriors had disrespected him by drafting him in the second round and by allowing Earl Boykins to take minutes from him in the best year of Boykins' career, leading him to sign with the Wizards instead of staying with the Warriors an extra year to get a Bird-rules contract. (Wondering why Yi to the Warriors never ended up materializing? There's as good a reason as any-can't imagine the Warriors brass is anxious to deal with Fegan again, ever.)

Here's Dan Fegan's full current client list:

Shandon Anderson (worthless)
Ruben Patterson (shuffled from the Bucks to the Clippers this off-season)
Austin Croshere (playing out the string with the Warriors)
Erick Dampier (An overpaid albatross for Dallas)
Howard Eisley (worthless)
Reggie Evans (just traded)
Dermarr Johnson (worthless)
Shawn Marion (Demanding a trade with a max-dollar deal, and seems to feel overlooked and under-appreciated just like Gilbert did in Golden State-hmm.)
Troy Murphy (traded in a salary dump)
Eduardo Najera (Making 5 millon dollars to do nothing for the Nuggets)
Nene (Making 10 mill a year over the next 5 years for the Nuggets)
Jason Richardson (Traded in a salary dump)
Ricky Sanchez (I don't even know who that is)
Anderson Varejao (See above)
Earl Watson (Making $18 millon over the next 3 years to ride the bench for the Sonics)
Jason Terry (Subject of trade rumors due to his salary)
Stephen Jackson (Traded in a crazy dump)
Yi Jianlian (Almost caused World War 3)

Here's the thing: With the possible exception of Jason Terry, not one team has signed a long-term deal with a Ferry client and ended up happy about it when the deal was up. Not one. I'm uncomfortable giving Dan Fegan strategy advice for the simple reason that he's a lot smarter than I am; in a world where most of the literati went to college for a little and spent most of their time there playing basketball, Fegan is a graduate of Yale Law. I'm a pre-law freshman. He's using strategies that I've never even heard of. That being said, I will say this; You can shear a sheep many times, but you can only skin him once. (Do they teach Rounders quotes at Yale Law? I think not.) With Dampier, Dunleavy, Murphy, and Nene, Fegan has skinned the sheep; team's aren't going to give 8 figures to his clients out of sheer respect for their potential anymore. For all Anderson's talent and accomplishments, he hasn't proven himself a $10 million player yet, and the Cavs aren't going to be fooled by Fegan's game.

Of course, all this thinking about the Fegan effect got me to thinking about what it would be like if Dan Fegan was my agent, not just for my writing (I'd probably be demanding $50,000 a year from MVN, approximately $50,000 more than what I'm making independently), but for my everyday life. Without further ado:

(I walk into my college interview with Fegan.)

Admissions lady: Hi, John.

Fegan: Look, my client would be a great fit for your school. He's got a 3.6 GPA and sky-high board scores. You should accept him immediately.

Admissions lady: His numbers are certainly solid, but they're not overwhelming; I'm not sure I can guarantee an admission right now, because we have a lot of applicants with similar, if not better, numbers.

Fegan: Look, Jeaneanne.

Admissions Lady: My name's not...

Fegan: Jeaneanne, we both know there's a lot more to a student than his GPA, essay, extra-curriculars, and looks.

Me: My looks?

Fegan: Those SAT scores show unbelievable potential, and you don't want that potential going anywhere else. Also, John brings great intangibles to the table; he's going to do the little things at your college you won't find anywhere else. They might not show up on the stat sheet, but where else will you find a guy with the kind of hustle to make up to 15 calls on a Friday night to find a party? Also, these advanced numbers show a 5:1 ratio of politely helping drunk girls get home to accidentally hooking up with them. He really likes Kanye West. He's had limited opportunities, but he's come through when he's gotten them. These numbers project to big things for your university in the future.

Admissions lady: What the hell are you talking about?

Fegan: Additionally, the admissions of my previous clients with numbers like these show that John's clearly earned admission into this university. (Hands her list.)

Admissions lady: Didn't the last client of yours we let in post a .3 GPA and stab a guy?

Fegan: That was the past. The past has no relevance here.

Admissions lady: But you just said...

Fegan: The deal is on the table. Take it or leave it.

Admissions lady: Fine. You're in.

Fegan: Good. Now that we've established that he's got a non-transferable spot here, we demand a full scholarship.

Admissions lady: What? No way.

Fegan: Give us the scholarship, or we walk. John's perfectly willing to go to junior college for a year if we can't get a deal done.

Me: I am?

Admissions lady: We'll think about it.

(Three months later, talking with Fegan.)

Me: Hey, I ended up getting the scholarship, but I ended up missing the first three weeks of school because of my holdout, and I got stuck in the dorm they usually reserve for students categorized as "unstable." Also, I think they put pictures of me up in the faculty lounge, and my professors keep putting my papers in the shredder.

Fegan: Fitting in and thriving where you are is okay, but what's really important is that we got more money. Because I get 3% of that money.

(Four Months Later, eating lunch.)

Fegan: Hello, John.

Me: How did you know I'd be eating lunch here?

Fegan: I went to Yale Law.

Me: Okay.

Fegan: How is everything going with you?

Me: Pretty well. I've started to turn it around in class, and I'm actually seeing a really nice girl who I like a lot.

Fegan: That's what I wanted to talk to you about.

Me: You want to talk to me about my girlfriend?

Fegan: Yes, I believe she's undervaluing you. It looks here like you're calling her three times for every time she's calling you. Additionally, you've ended up paying for 90% of all dinners and knick-knacks, and she made you stop smoking, all for a woefully low sexual output.

Me: How long have you been following me for?

Fegan: Additionally, it looks like she's been canceling dinners with you to go to study sessions recently.

Me: She has mid-terms coming up.

Fegan: So now you're behind mid-terms in the rotation? Jesus. John, I'm going to be straight with you, because I'm your friend and have a 3% share in your happiness. You need to opt-out of this relationship. You could do fantastically on the open market. Now, I can't tell you who from, but there is interest in you, and I have several available women who would be ready to be completely obsessed with you.

Me: You mean the one with the hair?

Fegan: John, you've been a second banana for too long. Would you rather be a contributor to a good relationship or be the star of a disastrous one? Trust me on this one.

Me: Okay.

(Some time later. I'm at a party.)

Fegan: Johnny boy!

Me: How did you get in here?

Fegan: I got the guy at the door a guaranteed contract with the Bobcats.

Me: What do you want?

Fegan: I'm here as your agent. I saw you've been calling a girl for the last couple of weeks, and decided I'd help you in your negotiations so that I can get my 3%.

John: What does that even mean?

Fegan: Come over here, miss.

Girl: Hi. Who are you?

Fegan: I'm about to be 3% of your boyfriend. These negotiations between you and my client have dragged on for far too long. It's time we worked something out.

Girl: Well, John's a nice guy. I'd go to dinner with you tomorrow night.

Me: Great!

Fegan: I'm sorry, but that's a low-ball offer. Looking at past dating histories of my clients, the value of a 5-8 vaguely semetic writer with blue eyes has been clearly established as a 3-month binding sexual contract. Those are the terms of the deal; if you don't like it, there are other interested parties.

Me: Dan, there aren't really a lot of...

Girl: I'm not really sure I'm willing to commit to that right now. I'd make out with you tonight, but...

Me: Jesus Christ Dan, take the deal!

Fegan: Sorry, but the terms of the deal are non-negotiable. If you don't like it, John is perfectly willing to date men for the semester.

Me: Dan, this bluffing thing has gone way too far!

Girl: Sorry, I can't do it. Never talk to me again.

Me: What the hell, Dan!

Fegan: Well, you can't win em' all. I'd stay and chat, but I don't care about you. There's a party at the rainbow house in an hour. (Walks over to Joe McKnight.)

Fegan: Joe! Dan Fegan. You're a great player. What are you doing at the bottom of the depth chart? I can tell you right now, there are schools who would be interested in your talents.