My Cavaliers Preview

Last Year's Record: 50-32
Key Additions: Cedric Simmons, Devin Brown
Key Losses: David Wesley, Sasha Pavlovic(maybe), Anderson Varejao(maybe)

What Significant Moves Were Made Over the off-season?:

For the first few months of the summer, "quiet" would have been an understatement; not only were we unable to make a major move, but we couldn't even re-sign our own starting shooting guard and 6th man. My thoughts on how all this transpired can be found here.But for whatever reason, shortly after that post, we started to make some decent moves, trading David Wesley for Cedric Simmons' upside, which was startling to say the least, because the best Wesley-related news we were hoping to get this season was that he retired.

Then we went out and signed Devin Brown, a reliable guard who can defend and even score a little, for absolutely nothing, giving us a reliable rotation player essentially for free. The strategy with both signing Pavlovic/Varejao and making a move right now is to engage in a war of attrition-from what I can surmise, Ferry is betting that we'll do just fine without Pavs and Andy, forcing them to sign for less money, and instead of trying to force a deal when every team in the league thinks it's going to the playoffs, he's going to wait until a team gets itself in a "fire sale" position at the deadline and swoop in and pluck a star from them; if Pavlovic and Varejao have reasonable 1-year tender offers, they could be major trade chips to accomplish this. All in all, we ended our off-season with more questions than answers, but it's better than going into the season with the wrong answers, like we did in the Hughes/Marshall/Jones summer.

What are this team's greatest strengths?

Our 3-pronged strategy for getting to the finals last year was defense, rebounding, and LeBron. We were a top-5 defensive team in the regular season, and in the playoffs our defense was second to only the Spurs'. As many have mentioned, the curious thing about the Cavs' defensive excellence is that the starting lineup didn't feature any elite defenders by reputation: Even though Hughes made an all-defense team a few years back, that selection was a fluke because of his high steal totals, which he won't replicate in our defensive system, which differs from the Wizards' in that it actually stops opposing teams from getting to the basket. Also, age and injuries have cut Larry's lateral movement so much that he can't defend anywhere near as well as he once could have. Pavlovic was regarded as another European matador on defense, and actually said to Mike Brown "My offense is my defense." LeBron's defense has long been maligned. Drew Gooden is an outright disaster at the defensive end, and "can't guard a chair" was in the scouting reports on Z for many years.

So how did we get so good defensively? First of all, having LeBron means we don't need a true point guard,(although one would help), so we were able to play the "big backcourt" with impunity, giving us great defensive presence. Pavlovic stepped up his defense tremendously, putting his athletic gifts to work, and even shut down Vince Carter in the Nets series. Illgauskas somehow made himself into a master of the paint. LeBron stepped his defensive intensity way, way, up, especially in the playoffs. And Varejao proved himself an invaluable defender because of his quickness, footwork, ability to never give an opposing player a clean look or comfortable dribble, and unrivaled ability to draw charges. Eric Snow played great defense as well, but his offense is so very bad it that it canceled out the benefits of his defense. A lot of the credit for this goes to Mike Brown, a defensive savant whose rotations, defense-first attitude, and ability to close out the 3-point line made him the most valuable assistant coach in the whole league. Oh, wait, he's our head coach.

Rebounding is pretty simple to explain-again, the "big backcourt" allowed us to get a lot of rebounds cheaply, and Gooden, Varejao, and Z are some of the best rebounders in the league. Devin Brown and even Daniel Gibson are great rebounders as well, and hopefully their extra boards will make up for the loss of Varejao, although I really wish we had him back.

Then, of course, there's LeBron, a top-3 player on any night and a top-1 player when properly motivated, capable of winning any game by himself, sometimes literally. There's not a whole lot more to say about him, but he's carried this team for 3 years now, and he's still 22 and getting better.

What are this team's Major Weaknesses?

Offense. Plain and simple. We were at the middle-to-low end of the pack offensively last season, and when you have a player like LeBron James on your team, that's just plain ridiculous. Our outside shooters were largely ineffective and unable to keep the floor spaced for James. We still don't have a consistent 2nd scoring threat for LeBron-Larry Hughes can't get himself to the hoop consistently anymore, forcing him to settle for his shaky jumper way too much. Z and Gooden are both mainly 15-foot catch-and-shoot guys, getting their points in the flow of the offense instead of posting up and creating their own baskets.

Varejao can't create his own offense. Pavlovic has shown flashes of being a capable slasher and outside shooter, but he's still inconsistent, and has games where he can't get anything going regularly. Also, he might be in Europe all year. Boobie is an intriguing question mark, and Shannon is a depressing question mark. Compounding all of our problems is Mike Brown's offensive genius, which can't get LeBron the ball in spots he likes or get our team in the full-court, often leading to a bad fadeaway from LeBron or Larry with 3 seconds left in the shot clock. Having a true point to take the pressure off LeBron could help, but there's no use wishing for what you don't have.

What are this team's goals?

Championship. Now. They got sort of close next year, and that's the only hurdle left. The next year or two could either be the beginning of a powerhouse for years to come or the tail end of an ultimately failed attempt to surround a singular talent with a team that he could carry to the promised land. Other than a championship, I would say that this team's biggest goal is to form a solid Kobe/Shaq, Nash/Amare, Duncan/Ginobili/Parker-type core that will make sure Cleveland stays important for the next few years instead of continuing to go to war with LeBron and the E Street Band, which will help us avoid a Heat-style championship hangover.

What is LeBron going to do this year, after the most disappointing and best season of his career?

Whether LeBron comes out with passion and fury this year is something that remains to be seen-I wouldn't be surprised to see him spend the first month or two of the year trying to get an offensive flow working with his teammates, working on his jumper, and experimenting in the post instead of driving with a vengeance and trying to take over every game. Last year, it too often looked like there was a switch LeBron was turning on and off-he'd sit around, pound the ball, over-pass, and fire 20-foot fadeaways for a quarter, then start weaving through defenders and dunking with authority the next. More than any mechanical sort of adjustment this year, I'd like to see LeBron do away with the switch and have the freaky sort of season we all know he's capable of having. Better free throws, a consistent jumper, and a low-post game are all great, but it will be the intensity with which he goes about the game that will determine how his season goes. I want to see him play every game like it's his last.

Is the third season going to be the charm for Larry Hughes?

The fact is this: Larry Hughes has been horrible the past two years. Forget the injuries for a second; even when healthy, Larry has been completely and utterly ineffective. His shooting percentage has been abysmal, his defense has been slightly above average at best, and he doesn't impact the game with his rebounding or playmaking. For some reason, many NBA writers have decided that the problem with Larry has been one of "fit": Larry is most effective as a slasher, so putting him with a driver like LeBron has forced him to be a catch-and-shoot player, which is all wrong for him. If there are NBA GMs reading this, and that's what you believe, call Danny Ferry right now. Also, I'm thrilled to inform you that you've won $5,000,000 in the Ukrainian lottery; all I need is your credit account number and we'll get you that money.

The real story is that Larry has just been flat-out bad, regardless of his tendencies. If he's such a slasher, why does a quick look at his stats tell us that he goes to the hole much less, draws less fouls, and finish worse inside than Michael Redd, the kind of "shooter" who's supposed to work well with LeBron, despite the fact the exact same number of their shots come off of assists? Watching Cavaliers games, what Larry will do is take the ball at the 3-point line, pump-fake, try to get to the basket, fail, and end up pulling up for a 20-footer that he seldom makes. LeBron never enters into the equation. We'd love a second slasher on this team, and Sasha Pavlovic was successful doing that in the 2nd half of last year, but Larry is not that slasher; age and injuries have sapped his explosiveness to the point where he can't get to the basket or finish when he does get there.

Oh, and as for the "Larry's really just a big point guard!" argument, fueled by the fact that we had a hard time losing games when we started Larry, Sasha, and LeBron in the backcourt, remember that the lineup was mainly effective because of its defensive capabilities, and that it also marked the first time Sasha, our 2nd-best offensive player by the end of the year, saw time in the starting lineup. Larry's preference to look for his own shot and inability to drive by his man make him a horrible offensive point guard.

This year, however, it might be time for everything to change. Larry's last year in Washington let us know he's talented when healthy and motivated, and all the reports from this off-season say that's exactly what he is this year. Not only have there been "Hey, Larry worked his booty off during the off-season and worked on his shot with Mark Price!" stories, but Brian Windhorst reported that Larry has been dunking with authority in training camp and looks like he might actually have his explosiveness back, which would be huge news, and I'm ready to believe in Larry Hughes again, even though his preseason performances (4-11 with 0 free throws in his last game) seem to suggest that he might just go back to being Cleveland Larry again this year.

What Kind of Impact are the 2006 Kids Going to Make On our Abysmal Backcourt?

We all know about Daniel Gibson; after all, it was his 31-point assault from beyond the arc that finished off the Pistons, and he was one of the few bright spots in the Massacre at the Alamo. All through the season, he would come in for a few minutes, hit a few threes, then watch Eric Snow play 30 minutes, not get covered, and force Cavs fans to put pins in their Mike Brown voodoo dolls. He was a spot-up shooter who wouldn't shoot a whole lot, but seemed to be able to make them when he did shoot them. Then, in the playoffs, a whole new Boobie showed up. He kept on drilling 3s, but he also attacked the hole with abandon and started drawing fouls. He's got good size for the PG position, blinding speed and a good crossover, so the optimistic among us seeing him learning to combine his athleticism with his deadly shot to become an offensive force in the very near future.

The super-optimistic among us see him as being our point guard of the future, because he's point-guard sized and actually good, which you can't really say about any of our current point guards. I'm skeptical about this one, mainly because a lot of point guards like to pass, and Boobie really doesn't. He averaged 3.4 assists per 48 minutes in the regular season, and that number went down in the playoffs. To provide context, no other point guard in the league, be they a starter, shoot-first guard, or backup, averaged less than about 6 per 48 minutes, and the good ones are comfortably over 10. Technically, the ability to pass can be taught, but I'm not comfortable projecting that type of jump in any player. The ability to pass is like the ability to work the count in baseball; it seems easy enough to learn, but few players actually do it, and the type of jump needed to make Gibson a true point would be like Rocco Baldelli turning into Barry Bonds. There are exceptions to every rule, and I'm hoping Boobie will be one of them, but he won't come out of the gate looking like John Stockton. In a perfect world, Boobie would turn into a Ben Gordon/Earl Boykins type of scorer off the bench-look at the shooting (eFG% on jump shots), % of shots that were jumpers, assist, and foul drawing numbers from Boobie, Gordon, and Boykins in his breakout year with Golden State:

Gibson: .561/84%/2.5/9.4%
Gordon: .514/85%/5.3/9.7%
Boykins:.442/88%/8.2/10.3

Even though even those guys passed more than Gibson, it's clear they score effectively by shooting from outside well and often and getting themselves to the line a disproportionate amount.

Shannon Brown was not the type of rookie success story that Gibson was; despite the fact he was our first-round draft pick,(ahead of solid point guard Jordan Farmar and the potentially transcendent Sergio Rodriguez), he never cracked the rotation consistently, and played poorly when he did get a chance. His suspect ballhandling relegated him to being a spot-up shooter, which he isn't that good at, and his defense was not up to Mike Brown standards. Shannon is another point guard who isn't a point guard, and while his shot is passable, it certainly isn't a strength. Shannon has a lot of (rhymes with "puptide") because of his wingspan and athleticism, and with some freedom, he could evolve into a great player in the NBA. His 14 free throw attempts in the last preseason game is the most promising thing I've heard all summer. Given an opportunity, Shannon could be a much better player than Devin Brown, Pavlovic, or even Hughes, but more than likely he'll be worse than all three. I'll have my eye on him.

Will a slimmed-down Donyell Marshall and revenge-motivated Damon Jones make the type of impact they were supposed to when they were signed?

No. They're terrible. I'm pretty sure swear TNT asked for Damon's suit measurements at one point during the playoffs.

How will the new guys be?

Wow, there's not a whole lot exciting about Devin Brown. He plays good defense, drives decently, shoots decently, is of average age, and should be a solid rotation player; he could be better than that, or he could be worse. I'd still rather have Sasha back, especially since he's younger and has more (rhymes with "truckslide"), but Brown at the minimum isn't too bad at all. Cedric Simmons is much more interesting: He was the #15 pick one year ago, he's got a freak body with a monster wingspan, is a real-live shot blocker, can dunk with authority, and has nothing resembling an actual offensive game or defensive discipline. There's a good chance he'll spend most of the season buried on the bench; he reminds me of Andris Biedrins in Golden State, who I wished we hadn't drafted for 2 years and then watched him become our most valued young asset overnight, even though he still looks like he's shooting a ball made out of Kryptonite. Hassan Adams is the type of solid young player who makes you say "Wait, nobody wanted him? Really?" and Darius Rice could be a rich man's Donyell Marshall. Hooray.

Projected Record:

55-27. Even with the East being a lot stronger, we could have a motivated LeBron James with a new bag of weapons, a healthy and effective Larry Hughes, an effective offensive strategy, an 82-game season from an athletic young point who can shoot the lights out, a young uber-athletic shooting guard, a solid guard with a chance to prove himself on the big stage, and an athletic young big with mountains of upside. Just a couple of those things coming together would make this team hugely improved, which is why I'm predicting a record jump this year. Have a good season and Go Cavs!

The Cavs and Major League 2: Redux

Hey all, sorry I haven't gotten a post up recently; I don't want you to think that I'm going into a downward spiral after that last semi-depressed post (I think the Sideways picture made the post seem much sadder than it actually was, but I liked it anyways; at the time of the post, I identified pretty strongly with both someone who was on the cusp of something supposed to be a major positive turning point in his life, only to be scared by the implications of it and retreat to doing what he had been doing before without fear of repercussion, AND the writer who was convinced that his career and life were going nowhere. So I liked it. But I'm not sad. And thank you so much to all of you who commented on the last post; believe it or not, that meant a lot to me, and is the type of thing that keeps me writing.) In fact, I finally got around to actually posting something about USC football today: here's the link.

I'd really like to get a fresh post basketball post up before the week is over, but unfortunately I have a paper due tomorrow and don't have the time; I started doing a post on how I think Boston's troika is going to work out, but ended up hating it after a few paragraphs. So I'm going to recycle a post from my message-board days, which I originally put up during the Cavs' midseason swoon, when LeBron looked officially disinterested and the general public was getting ready to write off the Cavaliers. This is definitely one of my favorite pieces I ever wrote for RCF, (my absolute favorite one is this one, which I definitely wish I had written when I was blogging; that might be my favorite thing I've ever written, and I wish more people could have seen it.) and I feel even better about it now that the Cavs' season ended up mirroring the Major League 2's Indians even more; after losing to the hated White Sox after a miraculous run to the playoffs in Major League, in Major League 2, the Indians bounced back from their difficulties and ended up beating the White Sox and making the World Series at last. (I get predictions right every now and then. Put that in your pipe and smoke it, Kevin Durant fans. Also, he's officially a shooting guard to start the season.) Here's the original post, with new thoughts in italics:

As bad sports movies that regularly appear on cable go, it doesn't get much better than Major League 2. In case you don't remember, or haven't seen the movie (not a bad call), the plot goes as follows: In the first Major League, our heroes the Cleveland Indians were fresh off of an incredible pennant run, which they attained on the back of their young phenom pitcher, Rick "Wild Thing" Vaughn. They were eliminated in the playoffs, but came back the next year with high hopes, as they hadn't lost anyone important from the previous year. (Except for Wesley Snipes, but he was replaced by Omar Epps.) However, things didn't go as planned for our beloved Indians. Almost all the players went into a funk for one reason or another, and it looked like their success had been a fluke, and that they would never win the World Series that they wanted so badly. You probably know where I'm going with this-if you really need it explained to you, yikes. Let's break it down, player by player-

Rick "Wild Thing" Vaughn, who had carried the team with his blazing fastball and bad-ass persona, came into camp with a new attitude. He held off of throwing his fastball, talking about the need to "conserve his arm" and instead attacked hitters with his new assortment of off-speed stuff, which was mediocre at best. On top of that, his newfound obession with image and making money off the court made his passion for the game leave, and he ended up losing his heat for much of the movie. Obviously, that's LeBron, despite the fact that "Wild Thing" became AV's nickname. Just like Wild Thing, LeBron came up huge at the hugest time last season; after choking early in the series, he came back with beyond a vengeance and destroyed the Pistons in game 5, although he's still spending a healthy amount of time focusing on his image. Additionally, his determination to add a jump shot and post moves to his game reminds me too much of Rick Vaughn's determination to add ineffective off-speed pitches to his arsenal to supplement his unhittable fastball. LeBron, you're completely unstoppable when you drive to the basket. Just go. Last year, his switching from an attack mentality to a passive need to shoot fadeaways nearly made me chew a hole in my own flesh; if he drives even less because of the new facets to his game, I'm going to go crazy. And, for the record, I'm a huge supporter of LeBron working his jump shot and even more excited about the possibility of post moves, but Major League 2 has been Nostradamus-like so far, and this scares me. Okay, I'm not making sense anymore. It's 2:20 in the morning and I've been trying to make progress on an immigration paper for an hour and a half. Cut me some slack.

Willie Mays Hays, played by Omar Epps, had been the fastest/most effective leadoff hitter in the league last season, but came into camp nursing his injuries and foolishly attempting to hit for power instead of just putting the ball on the ground and running. That's Larry, who's nursing his glass ankle and trying to be a 3-point shooter instead of the slasher he's supposed to be. I don't have much else to say about this one; we're all hoping for the best and expecting the worst for Larry this year.


Jake Taylor, the heroic catcher played by Tom Berenger, is a solid clubhouse leader and veteran presence, but his extreme age has deteriorated his skills to the point where he's not kept on the roster, and is instead kept on as an assistant coach so that talented, eager, and inexperienced Rube Baker can come on and be productive, eventually serving as the downtrodden team's spark plug. It's Snow and Boobie. Called it called it called it. You know what it is.

Jack Parkman is the team's most talented player other than Vaughn, but his horrible attitude and desire to get paid causes him to be traded to Chicago, where he continues to produce/be a complete douchebag, until he finally gets bitten in the ass by karma at the end of the movie. There's Carlos Boozer! Now that Boozer effectively destroyed my Warriors on the boards, I hate him even more, and the fact that the whole Drew/Andy for cheap is just as good for Boozer for expensive! argument is becoming more and more untrue makes me crazy. Grr.

Pedro Cerrano(Played by President David Palmer) is the team's cleanup hitter, a man who has boundless power but is also a complete nut, costing the team games because of his need to save a bird, and just generally being a giant vagina because of his newfound commitment to Bhuddism, which nearly cancels out his immense natural talent. Drew Gooden, everybody. Just like Pedro, Drew had his redemption early in the playoffs; Pedro was one of the only ones who stuck around for all three movies, which is appropriate because I'm sure Drew's never going away.

Isuro Tanaka is an import from Japan, and despite his limited English, he comes in, plays hard every day, and gets up in the rest of the team's face in order to inspire them to play hard. Meet Andy. Later in the season, this could also have applied to Pavlovic; in the third movie, Isuro had quit baseball to run a mini-golf place, which is like Andy going to Europe.

Roger Dorn has made the transformation from overpaid, spoiled ballplayer who didn't play defense to the owner of the team, and even though his skills are now nonexistant, he still thinks the world revolves around him, at one point asking, "Do you think April's too early to have a Roger Dorn Night?" Damon Jones. Even more true now than when I wrote it.

I can't find anyone in the movie who resembles Z, or anyone on the Cavs who resembles that cute chick from Dazed and Confused who gets Vaughn to stop being such a pussy and throw heat again, but that's not too bad.

Finally, let's not forget the team's obnoxious, loudmouth fans, who instantly turn on the team when they begin losing, and especially have it in for Rick Vaughn, who they mercilessly ridicule, giving him the idiotic nickname "Vile thing" and eventually making him want to give up pitching. Even when the Indians make the playoffs, the fan says "We'll only blow it anyways," and seems genuinely thrilled by the team's failures up until the last scene of the movie, when the Indians win the World Series after Vaughn refinds his heat and get a clutch strikeout, at which point the fan proclaims "I believed in him all along!" Bill Simmons, everybody!

So why am I posting this? A few reasons.
#1, it's really weird that our team has this many similarities between a bad sports movie about a Cleveland team.

#2, I'm optimistic that LeBron and the team in general will turn it on like the Indians did, and quiet all the doubters and haters. Not being a homer and saying we're doing fantastic, just saying I have faith that this team is going to pull through this; remember last year, when LBJ wasn't an MVP candidate at mid-season, and everyone was ready to end the season early and hand the Pistons the championship. I could say this in any number of threads, but it's not where you start or middle, it's where you finish. We've got problems now, sure, although Boobie looks like he could be a solution to our biggest one(love, love, love his shot), but that's not the same as having problems in the off-season. Maybe it's because my hometown team is the Warriors, who I can't remember ever making the playoffs, and whose "superstar" is crazy Baron Davis, but I'm thrilled to be part of a team that's definitely headed to the playoffs with a player as talented as LeBron. (Not going to get into just exactly how good he is now, this isn't the right time.) Gives you some perspective on just how hard the Warriors came out of nowhere after the Dunleavy/Jackson trade. Also, looking back over this makes me feel like Yoda. Well, thanks for reading. Fresh posts next week.

Dan In Real Life

So training camp is about to start, and the Cavaliers still haven't re-upped two of their best rotation players, Sasha Pavlovic and Anderson Varejao. The Pavlovic situation is ridiculous; after giving Damon Jones and Donyell Marshall solid money, and Larry Freaking Hughes a max-dollar deal, they don't want to pay decent money for a 24-year old athletic slasher who plays extremely good defense and shoots 40% from 3-point range. Pay him now, Danny.

The Varejao situation is a good deal more complicated; Varejao is a great defender and rebounder, runs the pick-and-roll effectively with LeBron, finds himself on the floor in crunch-time, and should absolutely be starting over Drew Gooden. However, his agent, Dan Fegan, is complicating matters by saying that he should be getting $10 million a year, using his restricted status to essentially play "chicken" with the Cavalier brass. (Some good reactions to the situation can be found at my site, MVN, by my colleagues Amar and James-James' column even features yelling in capital letters. I suggest reading it in a Stephen A. Smith voice.)

Fegan's had himself a big summer-he's Yi Jianlian's agent as well, and as we all know, Yi's holdout was bitter indeed, and nearly caused an international incident. We of the G-State faithful fondly remember Fegan as the guy who orchestrated Mike Dunleavy, Troy Murphy, and Jason Richardson's ridiculous contracts, and made Gilbert Arenas leave town by preying on his insecurity and making him believe that the Warriors had disrespected him by drafting him in the second round and by allowing Earl Boykins to take minutes from him in the best year of Boykins' career, leading him to sign with the Wizards instead of staying with the Warriors an extra year to get a Bird-rules contract. (Wondering why Yi to the Warriors never ended up materializing? There's as good a reason as any-can't imagine the Warriors brass is anxious to deal with Fegan again, ever.)

Here's Dan Fegan's full current client list:

Shandon Anderson (worthless)
Ruben Patterson (shuffled from the Bucks to the Clippers this off-season)
Austin Croshere (playing out the string with the Warriors)
Erick Dampier (An overpaid albatross for Dallas)
Howard Eisley (worthless)
Reggie Evans (just traded)
Dermarr Johnson (worthless)
Shawn Marion (Demanding a trade with a max-dollar deal, and seems to feel overlooked and under-appreciated just like Gilbert did in Golden State-hmm.)
Troy Murphy (traded in a salary dump)
Eduardo Najera (Making 5 millon dollars to do nothing for the Nuggets)
Nene (Making 10 mill a year over the next 5 years for the Nuggets)
Jason Richardson (Traded in a salary dump)
Ricky Sanchez (I don't even know who that is)
Anderson Varejao (See above)
Earl Watson (Making $18 millon over the next 3 years to ride the bench for the Sonics)
Jason Terry (Subject of trade rumors due to his salary)
Stephen Jackson (Traded in a crazy dump)
Yi Jianlian (Almost caused World War 3)

Here's the thing: With the possible exception of Jason Terry, not one team has signed a long-term deal with a Ferry client and ended up happy about it when the deal was up. Not one. I'm uncomfortable giving Dan Fegan strategy advice for the simple reason that he's a lot smarter than I am; in a world where most of the literati went to college for a little and spent most of their time there playing basketball, Fegan is a graduate of Yale Law. I'm a pre-law freshman. He's using strategies that I've never even heard of. That being said, I will say this; You can shear a sheep many times, but you can only skin him once. (Do they teach Rounders quotes at Yale Law? I think not.) With Dampier, Dunleavy, Murphy, and Nene, Fegan has skinned the sheep; team's aren't going to give 8 figures to his clients out of sheer respect for their potential anymore. For all Anderson's talent and accomplishments, he hasn't proven himself a $10 million player yet, and the Cavs aren't going to be fooled by Fegan's game.

Of course, all this thinking about the Fegan effect got me to thinking about what it would be like if Dan Fegan was my agent, not just for my writing (I'd probably be demanding $50,000 a year from MVN, approximately $50,000 more than what I'm making independently), but for my everyday life. Without further ado:

(I walk into my college interview with Fegan.)

Admissions lady: Hi, John.

Fegan: Look, my client would be a great fit for your school. He's got a 3.6 GPA and sky-high board scores. You should accept him immediately.

Admissions lady: His numbers are certainly solid, but they're not overwhelming; I'm not sure I can guarantee an admission right now, because we have a lot of applicants with similar, if not better, numbers.

Fegan: Look, Jeaneanne.

Admissions Lady: My name's not...

Fegan: Jeaneanne, we both know there's a lot more to a student than his GPA, essay, extra-curriculars, and looks.

Me: My looks?

Fegan: Those SAT scores show unbelievable potential, and you don't want that potential going anywhere else. Also, John brings great intangibles to the table; he's going to do the little things at your college you won't find anywhere else. They might not show up on the stat sheet, but where else will you find a guy with the kind of hustle to make up to 15 calls on a Friday night to find a party? Also, these advanced numbers show a 5:1 ratio of politely helping drunk girls get home to accidentally hooking up with them. He really likes Kanye West. He's had limited opportunities, but he's come through when he's gotten them. These numbers project to big things for your university in the future.

Admissions lady: What the hell are you talking about?

Fegan: Additionally, the admissions of my previous clients with numbers like these show that John's clearly earned admission into this university. (Hands her list.)

Admissions lady: Didn't the last client of yours we let in post a .3 GPA and stab a guy?

Fegan: That was the past. The past has no relevance here.

Admissions lady: But you just said...

Fegan: The deal is on the table. Take it or leave it.

Admissions lady: Fine. You're in.

Fegan: Good. Now that we've established that he's got a non-transferable spot here, we demand a full scholarship.

Admissions lady: What? No way.

Fegan: Give us the scholarship, or we walk. John's perfectly willing to go to junior college for a year if we can't get a deal done.

Me: I am?

Admissions lady: We'll think about it.

(Three months later, talking with Fegan.)

Me: Hey, I ended up getting the scholarship, but I ended up missing the first three weeks of school because of my holdout, and I got stuck in the dorm they usually reserve for students categorized as "unstable." Also, I think they put pictures of me up in the faculty lounge, and my professors keep putting my papers in the shredder.

Fegan: Fitting in and thriving where you are is okay, but what's really important is that we got more money. Because I get 3% of that money.

(Four Months Later, eating lunch.)

Fegan: Hello, John.

Me: How did you know I'd be eating lunch here?

Fegan: I went to Yale Law.

Me: Okay.

Fegan: How is everything going with you?

Me: Pretty well. I've started to turn it around in class, and I'm actually seeing a really nice girl who I like a lot.

Fegan: That's what I wanted to talk to you about.

Me: You want to talk to me about my girlfriend?

Fegan: Yes, I believe she's undervaluing you. It looks here like you're calling her three times for every time she's calling you. Additionally, you've ended up paying for 90% of all dinners and knick-knacks, and she made you stop smoking, all for a woefully low sexual output.

Me: How long have you been following me for?

Fegan: Additionally, it looks like she's been canceling dinners with you to go to study sessions recently.

Me: She has mid-terms coming up.

Fegan: So now you're behind mid-terms in the rotation? Jesus. John, I'm going to be straight with you, because I'm your friend and have a 3% share in your happiness. You need to opt-out of this relationship. You could do fantastically on the open market. Now, I can't tell you who from, but there is interest in you, and I have several available women who would be ready to be completely obsessed with you.

Me: You mean the one with the hair?

Fegan: John, you've been a second banana for too long. Would you rather be a contributor to a good relationship or be the star of a disastrous one? Trust me on this one.

Me: Okay.

(Some time later. I'm at a party.)

Fegan: Johnny boy!

Me: How did you get in here?

Fegan: I got the guy at the door a guaranteed contract with the Bobcats.

Me: What do you want?

Fegan: I'm here as your agent. I saw you've been calling a girl for the last couple of weeks, and decided I'd help you in your negotiations so that I can get my 3%.

John: What does that even mean?

Fegan: Come over here, miss.

Girl: Hi. Who are you?

Fegan: I'm about to be 3% of your boyfriend. These negotiations between you and my client have dragged on for far too long. It's time we worked something out.

Girl: Well, John's a nice guy. I'd go to dinner with you tomorrow night.

Me: Great!

Fegan: I'm sorry, but that's a low-ball offer. Looking at past dating histories of my clients, the value of a 5-8 vaguely semetic writer with blue eyes has been clearly established as a 3-month binding sexual contract. Those are the terms of the deal; if you don't like it, there are other interested parties.

Me: Dan, there aren't really a lot of...

Girl: I'm not really sure I'm willing to commit to that right now. I'd make out with you tonight, but...

Me: Jesus Christ Dan, take the deal!

Fegan: Sorry, but the terms of the deal are non-negotiable. If you don't like it, John is perfectly willing to date men for the semester.

Me: Dan, this bluffing thing has gone way too far!

Girl: Sorry, I can't do it. Never talk to me again.

Me: What the hell, Dan!

Fegan: Well, you can't win em' all. I'd stay and chat, but I don't care about you. There's a party at the rainbow house in an hour. (Walks over to Joe McKnight.)

Fegan: Joe! Dan Fegan. You're a great player. What are you doing at the bottom of the depth chart? I can tell you right now, there are schools who would be interested in your talents.

The Off-Season Adventures of the Cleveland Cavaliers: Danny Ferry's Desk

Danny Ferry(Wearing a shirt that says "We were not in a position to offer Ray Allen or Michael Redd a max-dollar deal" on one side and "We did not have the assets necessary to complete a sign-and-trade for Joe Johnson" on the other side): Crap, I really have to make a move this off-season. Everyone's getting up my ass, and I have to improve this team. I better get on the phone. (Calls Kings GM Geoff Petrie)

Ferry: Hey Geoff, it's Danny.

Petrie: Hi, Danny.

Ferry: So anyways, we'd really like to get Mike Bibby on our team. He can run an offense and shoot from outside, two things our offense has been sorely lacking, and he could really make a difference on our team.

Petrie: Well, he's not untouchable; he's got a huge contract, and he's been getting worse the last few years. What can you offer me?

Ferry: This is hard for me to do, but I'm willing to offer you Drew Gooden.

Petrie: You want to essentially trade a point guard who scored 17 points per game in an off-year for a power forward who averaged 11 points in a career year straight-up?

Ferry: That's right, I am actually prepared to offer you this deal. And Drew's only on the hook for $14 million dollars over the next two years. Financial freedom, thy name is Gooden.

Petrie: I'm not sure. Drew's pretty light-skinned, but with him, Kevin Martin, and Ron Artest, we'd be starting the equivalent of two black players per game. That flies in the face of our organizational policies.

Ferry: Drew plays the piano.

Petrie: Hmm. That is good. Still, I worry about his consistency. For a big man, he shoots a pretty low percentage, he regularly follows up 8-11 games with 3-14 games, and he shot 44% for the entirety of December and February.

Ferry: Well, don't worry about that. We asked him what the problem was then, and he explained that he's from the Bay Area, and he couldn't function well in the colder months.

Petrie: He doesn't like the cold?

Ferry: Sort of. In his words, his Spirit Cougar has to hibernate during the colder months, which makes it tougher for him to hit the basket. That's just common sense. But you guys are in California, so you won't have that problem!

Petrie: That does make sense, although I can't help but worry about how his spirit cougar will interact with Ron Artest's invisible bipolar leprechaun mentor.

Ferry: Look, you guys need interior scoring, defense, and rebounding. Drew provides all of those things.

Petrie: I'm not sure about that. I was looking at game film of Drew,

Ferry: (Expletive)

Petrie: Anyways, Drew can rebound, but he never posts up, and is one of the worst defensive players I've ever seen.

Ferry: Drew's very good at defending people right in front of him, but you can't expect a big man to be able to defend the entire paint all by himself. He's not The Flash, Geoff.

Petrie: You're preaching to the choir here, Danny; as the guy who employs Brad Miller and Spencer Hawes, I couldn't agree with you more. But those guys are white. And not just white. Power white. The only reason Bibby's even available is because he has a posse. And I did just sign Mikki Moore, who led the league in field goal % last year, was the NBDL defensive player of the year, and rebounds at a decent clip. He's also borderline insane, so I just don't know what need we would have for Drew at this point. Sorry. I am sick of Ron Artest's attitude; what can you offer me for him?

Ferry: We're not interested. We already have a shooting guard who slashes to the rim, plays lock-down defense, and can shoot from the outside? Why would we want Ron Artest?

Petrie: Because he actually does do those things.

Ferry: Be that as it may, we don't like bad attitudes on this team. Good day. (Hangs up.)

Mike Brown: Don't worry. Bibby doesn't play defense, and we have no use for him. The Spurs, Suns, and Mavericks all start defensive liabilities at point guard, and look where it's gotten them. Besides, we don't need Bibby to make our offense work. I've got some new plays drawn up for this season, and believe me, we're going to light other teams up. They're not going to know what hit them when I bust out the "reverse motion" offense. Every defense in the league is designed to stop teams from getting to the basket, so they won't know what to do when Larry dishes it to LeBron running away from the basket at full-speed. (Grimaces happily.) Oh, and Anderson Varejao and his agent, Dan Fegan, are here to discuss his contract.

Ferry: Crap. Let them in.

Fegan: Hello, Danny.

Ferry: Burn in hell.

Fegan: Let's discuss Anderson's contract.

Ferry: I'm prepared to offer you an extension worth around 5-6 million dollars per year.

(Varejao instinctively falls out of his chair and crashes to the floor.)

Fegan: Not now, Andy. Look, it's pretty clear that Anderson is a franchise-type player. He's a young, athletic big man with a nose for the ball and a great motor. There are really no weaknesses in his game.

Ferry: He can't pass, shoot, handle the ball, score with his back to the basket, block shots, or guard big forwards.

Fegan: Don't try to swindle me, Danny. He runs the pick-and-roll with LeBron well. This isn't Ferry-world. My previous contracts have clearly established the value of a solid power forward in this league. Troy Murphy is making $10 million a year over the next 4 years, and Nene is making $10 million a year over the next 5 years. Nene is a Brazilian power forward; Anderson is a Brazilian power forward. That's called binding legal precedent.

Ferry: Well, I went to Duke, so I know you're full of crap with that big language. You're dealing with a guy with actual schooling.

Fegan: I went to Yale law.

Ferry: Oh. Well, be that as it may, Drew only makes $7 million dollars a year, and he's our starting power forward. Anderson is our backup power forward. I'm not paying a backup more than a starter. Checkmate.

Fegan: Well, I looked at the statistics,

Ferry: (Long string of expletives)

Fegan: And your team is a full 12 points per game better when Anderson is in for Drew, and he's on the floor in crunch-time of every game. There's really no valid reason why he isn't starting.

Ferry: Are you questioning the intelligence of my head coach?

(Mike Brown starts to exit the room in a huff, but instead of going straight to the door, he curls around the desk, walks over to the opposite wall, and eventually ends up walking into a flower pot before exiting the room.)

(Pause)

Ferry: Look, we just think you're overvaluing your client.

Fegan: Look, Dan-O, no team has ever been unhappy when they've signed one of my players. When was the last time you heard anyone regretting signing Troy Murphy, Erick Dampier, Shaun Marion, Earl Watson, Jason Terry, Stephen Jackson, Yi Jianlian, Jason Richardson, Austin Croshere, Ruben Patterson, Shandon Anderson, Reggie Evans, Dermarr Johnson, or Eduardo Najera to big contracts? None of those players have ever been completely ineffective, ended up getting traded in a contract dump, gotten an inflated ego because of me and demanded a trade, or nearly caused an international incident. I know you'll do the right thing.

Ferry: I don't much care for your fancy Big-10 logic, but it's pretty good. However, I think a team-crippling holdout situation is always better than overpaying a few million dollars. I believe that we have reached a stalemate.

Fegan: Later.

Ferry: I better make a trade. A big trade. (Picks up op-ed column that says the Cavs should trade for Shaun Marion, calls Suns GM Steve Kerr.)

Ferry: Hey, Steve.

Kerr: Hey, Danny.

Ferry: So I was seeing that Shaun Marion is unhappy over there in Phoenix.

Kerr: Yeah, he's being pretty sulky, which can happen after a heart-breaking playoff loss and a whole summer to sulk about it. But he's got a max-dollar deal, he's in the perfect situation, and I think once training camp starts up he'll see that we're serious about getting a championship now, which is something he won't find if he gets traded. I saw the same thing happen with Scottie Pippen back when I played for Chicago, and he had a contract dispute with an ownership that didn't appreciate him, so I think Shaun will come around sooner rather than later.

Ferry: Steve, you and I both know how ridiculous that sounds. Your only option is to trade him, and soon. And I just happen to have the perfect package in place.

Kerr: I'll give you five minutes because I'm a nice guy.

Ferry: Two words: Larry Hughes.

Kerr: What?

Ferry: He'd be perfect for the Suns. He doesn't work in our system because we play a half-court game, which is the only logical way to play when you have the best open-court player since Magic Johnson on your team. But you guys run-and-gun, which is perfect for Larry. He's an ultra-athletic slasher who can see the floor and run the court, and he'd be perfect in the Suns system. Also, you guys have some real problems defensively, and Larry's a stopper. Plus, I know how scared of the luxury tax you guys are, and Larry's only on the hook for $36 million over the next three years! So I'll send the paperwork over to your office, and you guys can start printing out jerseys.

Kerr: Hold on a second, Danny. I actually watch basketball,

Ferry: (5-minute string of unfiltered expletives in multiple languages)

Kerr: So I know that while Larry might have been a slasher earlier in his career, age and injuries have turned him into a jump shooter who looks for his own shot first, can't get to the basket consistently, has trouble finishing when he does, and doesn't have consistent 3-point range. Also, he's overrated defensively, and we have a much better defender in Raja Bell, not to mention that Shaun Marion might be the best defensive player in the league. I see no way that this trade would help us in any conceivable way.

Ferry: I can see how it might look that way at first. But think about it. Shaun can't create his own shot, and plays best when he's getting the ball cutting to the basket or for a spot-up shot, while Larry excels at creating his own shot-he can fire off a contested 20-footer at any time.

Kerr: We have the best point guard in the league, and our offense is based around him creating shots for other people. The only two players on your team I'd be interested in are Varejao, who rebounds, plays defense, and runs the court, but you guys didn't want to trade him when he was in the last year of his rookie deal, and I'm not paying $8 million for him now. But I do like that young Daniel Gibson; he's an athlete who can flat-out shoot, and we could always use a player like that so that Nash doesn't have to play 35 minutes a game 82 times a year.

Ferry: Slow down, Steve. We really like Daniel. He just exploded from relative obscurity to put up the best games of his life in the playoffs, exceeding all possible expectations of him. You never sell an asset when its value is really, really high. I didn't even need to go to business school to learn that. I am, however, willing to part with Drew Gooden.

Kerr: Never call me again.

(Sasha Pavlovic and his agent, Mark Goldstein, enter the room.)

Ferry: Hello, Mark.

Goldstein: Hi, Danny. Let's talk business. Sasha had a great year for you, he's still under the radar, and he's a great young piece for this franchise. We'd like a reasonable extension that would ensure that Sasha will spend his time with the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Ferry: Now how did the idea get in your head that we'd want to make any kind of significant effort to keep Sasha?

Goldstein: Well, he's your starting shooting guard, shot 45% from the field, 40% from 3-point range, and 80% from the line, and averaged a solid 14 points per game once he was made a starter. He's also the only player other than LeBron who can consistently get to the basket and finish, and he plays very solid defense.

Ferry: Meh. Sasha's good at making plays, but we already have LeBron to drive to the basket. There's no sense in having two players who can drive to the basket. We want to surround LeBron with shooters.

Goldstein: Sasha shot 40% from 3.

Ferry: Look, you can twist the facts all you want, but Sasha wasn't all that great for the entire first two thirds of the season.

Goldstein: Well, he was on the bench.

Ferry: Mike had his reasons for keeping him on the bench, and I have full faith in him.

Goldstein: Well, be that as it may, I don't see how you can judge my client on what he did before he had a chance to play, and I'm not sure he didn't deserve to get a chance earlier. It's impossible to make an impact from the bench.

Mike Brown(from other room): Not in the Reverse Motion offense!

(pause)

Goldstein: Sasha shot significantly higher percentages than Larry Hughes from the field, the 3-point line, and the free throw line, and played defense that was just as good as, if not better than, Larry's all season. The only thing Larry is better than Sasha at is shooting more, which really isn't all that impressive of a skill. You have no problem giving Larry $12 million a year, but you don't want to give Sasha $5 million?

Ferry: You're undervaluing Larry's contributions to this team. When we switched Larry to point guard, we had one of the best records in basketball.

Goldstein: That was also the first time the team was fully healthy and Sasha had a starting role. Isn't it possible that putting a good player into the starting lineup from the bench had more of an impact than making an ineffective shooting guard into an ineffective point guard?

Ferry: Look, this franchise is tight for cash. We can't just be throwing money around willy-nilly.

Goldstein: Didn't you just build a $25 million practice facility?

Ferry: That's important. We have treadmills that lower into water.

Goldstein: And you bought LeBron James a lion.

Ferry: LeBron likes lions. Look, Sasha doesn't have a lot of options here. He can take the peanuts or not play.

Goldstein: He'll play in Europe.

Ferry: That's ridiculous. Who would ever do something as petulant and selfish as that?

Goldstein: You.

Ferry: Okay. Sasha looks like a vampire. It creeps me out. I'll keep in touch.

(Sasha and Goldstein leave)

Ferry: Jesus, the world's gone mad. I can't get anything done. I couldn't even sign Alan Anderson. What we need is a shooter, a point guard, and a proven veteran, who can lead this team. But he'll need to be unhappy in his current situation; off-court troubles drive value way down. And he'll need to have GM even worse than me to trade him away. (Jumps up from desk, reaches for phone.)

Ferry: Hey, Isiah! It's me, Danny. How's the trial going? Good. Look, I've got a trade for you. How do you guys feel about Larry Hughes? I thought that's what you'd say-I think he'd be a great Knick too. Who do I want back? Well, that's kind of the interesting part. (pause) Do you still have sneakers that fit?

How can a player be overvalued and underrated at the same time?

This off-season, amid the Garnett trade, Jermaine O'Neal rumors, the summer of Kobe's discontent, and Reggie Miller considering whether or not to step out of the broadcast booth and onto the court, the defending Eastern Conference champions have yet to re-sign their starting shooting guard and their 6th man, are actively shopping their starting power forward, and are essentially holding an open audition for their point guard spot. Since it's the Cavaliers, nobody cares all that much, but the Cavaliers' situation with their power forward platoon is really quite interesting.

First, the facts: Anderson Varejao, the floppy-haired wonder from Brazil, is a restricted free agent this summer. He has not been able to come to terms with the Cavs, as his agent, Dan Fegan, believes that he should be making starter money (About $8 million per year), while the Cavaliers believe that as he currently comes off the bench, he should be making bench player money (around $5 million a year). Meanwhile, the Cavs' starting power forward, Mr. Drew Gooden, is currently being actively shopped, and has been for the last several years. The most recent serious rumor involving Drew had him going to the Kings for Mike Bibby, the established point guard the Cavs have craved for so long.

Unfortunately for the Cavaliers, Anderson Varejao knows that he's worth more than $5 million a year, and the league knows that Drew Gooden isn't the kind of commodity that can land a quality point guard. In the eyes of a GM, Anderson is much more valuable than Drew, despite Danny Ferry's efforts to convince them otherwise. However, in the eyes of a coach, Drew is the more valuable player-he played 56% of the minutes for the Cavaliers last year, while Mr. Varejao only played 49%. Oh, and age isn't a big factor; Drew is only 1 year older than Anderson, which makes this different from a simple "veteran production vs. young potential" question.

However, the truly interesting thing is that even though Drew is treated as the starter in Cleveland, it is a near-indisputable fact that the Cavaliers play better when Varejao is on the floor-Varejao and Drew play almost the same amount of minutes, and generally come in for each other, but the Cavs are 4.5 points better per 100 possessions when Varejao is on the floor than when he is off of it, and a stunning 8.5 points per 100 possessions worse when Gooden is on the floor than they are when he is on the bench.

To recap: the conventional wisdom of NBA brain trust believes that Drew Gooden is a better player than Anderson Varejao now, but Varejao is worth more due to his long-term "potential." In reality, Varejao is a better player than Gooden right now, but will probably not get much better over the course of his career than he is right now, while Drew will continue to produce more than many players considered more valuable assets than he is.

In short, Anderson Varejao is underrated but overvalued, while Drew Gooden is overrated but undervalued. How does that work? Keep reading.

Drew Gooden:

The top 10 of the 2002 NBA draft has to be one of the worst of all time. There were 2 bona fide NBA all-stars (Yao Ming and Amare Stoudamire, at #1 and #9), 4 players who are no longer with their original team (Gooden, Dunleavy, Caron Butler, and Chris Wilcox), and 3 players who are essentially done with NBA basketball (Jay Williams, Nickoloz Tskitishvili, and Dajuan Wagner.)

Drew went #4 in that draft. His first 3 years in the league, he averaged about 12 points and 7 rebounds in 27 mpg, shooting at a 46% clip. That was good enough to get him shipped off to Cleveland, along with Anderson Varejao, for Tony Battie and two 2nd-round draft picks. Meanwhile, in Golden State, the #3 pick in the draft, Mike Dunleavy, averaged 12 points and 5.5 rebounds in 31 mpg, shooting at a 45% clip, over his 2nd and 3rd years in the league. That was good enough to get him a 5-year contract worth $55 million. Nene, the #7 pick in the draft, averaged 10 points and 6 rebounds in 27 mpg, shooting at a 50% clip, over his first three years in the league. He was rewarded with a 6-year contract worth $60 million.

Here's a quick recap of what that looks like:

Drew: 12/7/46%
Dunleavy: 12/5.5/45%
Nene: 10/6/50%

Three forwards, drafted in the same year, putting up extremely similar numbers. Two get monster extensions after their first three years, while the other gets traded for Tony Battie.

Why is Drew Gooden so undervalued? Because the things he does well are skills that NBA teams assume can be easily acquired, and the ones he lacks are ones thought to be innate.

Drew Gooden is a very, very good rebounder; however, NBA teams do not consider it prudent to spend money on rebounders, as they assume that big men become better rebounders as their careers go on, although there is no evidence to support this. Here is a list of the league's best rebounders per 48 minutes, from the top down: Reggie Evans, Dikembe Mutumbo, Tyson Chandler, Jeff Foster, David Lee, Justin Williams, and Marcus Camby. Not a lot of trade value on that list-the only two guys seen as valuable are Lee and Chandler, and Chandler was essentially run out of town last off-season, while the Blazers nixed a trade that would have given the Knicks Darius Miles for David Lee.

Drew Gooden is also a quality midrange shooter, and gets many of his points on 15-foot jumpers from the wings. Again, this is not a skill that excites NBA General Managers, as they assume that a midrange game is something that can be developed.

Additionally, Drew Gooden is an intelligent scorer, and can use pump-fakes, jab-steps and two dribble-drives to get his shots; he also knows where to go on a pick-and-pop in order to get his shots. Again, NBA teams consider this an unexciting skill; what professional basketball player shouldn't be able to execute a "show-and-go?" It's not brain surgery.

Those are the things that Drew does well: Hits midrange jumpers, hustles for rebounds, and knows how to get himself looks on offense. All of those are good things, but NBA GMs believe that they can be easily taught.

The things he does badly, on the other hand, seem to be unsolvable:

• He's a mediocre athlete. He can't run the floor or throw it down like Amare.
• While he can score in a variety of ways around the basket, he's not strong enough to get deep post position, and thus does not appear to have upside as a back-to-basket scorer.
• He doesn't shoot 3s. While GMs believe that "touch" is something that can be taught, "range" is innate-you're born with 3-point range or you're not. Drew doesn't attempt 3s now, so it is assumed that he will never be a 3-point threat.
  

Those are the reasons that Drew Gooden is undervalued. However-and this is where things get a little tricky-many of those same qualities make him overrated, and allow him to get floor time that he does not deserve.

While Drew's rebounding prowess is underrated on its own, combined with a hefty amount of minutes and Drew's affinity for taking shots, he switches from a "good rebounder" to being a "double-double machine." The double-double is intriguing in that it is essentially a worthless stat(If a player is averaging 10 points and 10 rebounds in 40 minutes a game, is he having a good year?) Yet the list of double-double leaders is populated with the best players in the league-Garnett, Howard, Duncan, Amare. By rebounding well, playing a lot of minutes, and taking a healthy amount of shots, Gooden has earned a reputation as being similar to that elite group of players, when in reality he is nowhere near the caliber of player as the rest of the double-double leaders.

Also, while Drew's midrange game would appear to be a good thing, the midrange shot is actually the most counterproductive shot in the NBA. I would need a separate post to fully describe why I so abhor the midrange game, but basically it's so much easier to score at the rim or draw a foul nowadays than it is to hit a jumper that the 3-point shot is the only efficient way to shoot a jumper. (Refrain from commenting on that for now-I will have that separate essay up sometime soon.)

Additionally, Drew is good at creating shots for himself, but he's a low-percentage shooter, especially for a power forward. Those 14 points he's good for are often coming at the expense of shots by more efficient shooters, such as LeBron James.

Drew gets his numbers out there on the floor, which makes him appear valuable, but as we see when we look at Anderson Varejao, numbers often don't tell the whole story.

Anderson Varejao:

Anderson, referred to affectionately as "Andy" in Cleveland, came over in the trade with Gooden as a 2nd-round pick who had gotten absolutely zero chances to prove himself. With playing time, he quickly became a productive player and fan favorite in Cleveland. As it would happen, while Andy doesn't score or rebound as much as Drew, he is more coveted by NBA GMs, although not for the reasons he is actually more productive than Drew now. In fact, the main reason that general managers want Andy is that he can be productive while still being extremely unskilled.

Andy is 6 foot 11, and an incredible athlete; he can run the floor in the blink of an eye, and has an extremely quick jump. To the naked eye, those are essentially his only skills, but the fact that he is such a blank slate allows NBA brass to imagine about his future in a way they can't imagine Drew's.

• Anderson might be the worst shooter in the NBA-his eFG% on jump shots was .200 last season. (.500 is good, .400 is acceptable.) Jump shooting is something that can improve with repetition; NBA GMs imagine him being able to shoot a jumper.
• Andy has little to no back-to-basket game; that, too, can ostensibly be taught.
• As he showed in the last play in game three of the NBA Finals, he often has no idea what he's doing offensively; of course he can learn how to fit in an offensive set!
  
• He struggles mightily to create his own shot, another thing that NBA teams assume players can learn.
  
• He has a thin frame-get him some burgers and he's a low-post terror.
  

My god! In a couple of years, Varejao is going to be the Brazilian Amare Stoudamire! All he needs is a few of those David Thorpe workouts, and he'll be dropping 25-15s in no time! In reality, Andy probably won't show up one fall with a deft handle, sweet stroke, and Duncan-like post game on a bulked-up frame, but when scouts see a raw athlete like Varejao, all they can see is the best possible scenario. By refining his game as much as he can, Drew has destroyed our ability to imagine what he could become, and subsequently hurt his value. (In a related note, this is also why it's never a good idea for potential top-10 picks to stay in college another year-NBA teams expect them to improve after they draft them.)

In reality, Andy probably won't get much better than he is now. But wait! That's not such a bad thing! Why? Because Andy's underrated! (I really hope that this is starting to make sense.)

Many of the valuable things that Andy does aren't considered "skills" by the people who decide which basketball players are good and which aren't; as fate would have it, Drew Gooden is extremely bad at many of those subtle things that Andy excels at.

As with Drew, Andy is an excellent rebounder; just like with Drew, this makes him underrated, especially since he doesn't throw up double-doubles like Drew does.

As I mentioned, Drew has a much more refined offensive game than Andy does; however, the Cavs score 3.5 more points per 100 possessions when Varejao is on the floor, and 1.5 points per 100 possessions less when Drew is on the floor. There are several reasons for this.

First and foremost, neither Anderson or Drew is a very good shooter from the field-Anderson's eFG% is .476, and Drew's is .474. The average "true shooting" % of an NBA team is about 55%, so both of them are bad options to be taking shots on offense. Subsequently, a big reason that Anderson is a better offensive player than Drew is that he shoots the ball less-when he's not shooting, someone like LeBron is shooting, which is a better situation for the Cavaliers.

The other thing that makes Anderson a more effective offensive player than Drew is that he gets to the line about twice as much. Andy's lack of a midrange game forces him to crash the rim often, while Drew's reliance on his midrange shot and finesse game means he doesn't get to the line very much. I believe that we undervalue drawing fouls for the same reason we undervalue drawing walks in baseball; we instinctively judge scorers by their ability to score, much as we judge hitters by their ability to hit. (I believe that the days of disrespecting drawing contact are coming to an end-as Barry Bonds alerted us to the power of the walk, Dwayne Wade is fast acclimating us to the power of the free throw.)

Finally, Anderson's defense is extremely underrated. He doesn't block shots, and he is far too skinny to stop many of the league's larger forwards from shoving him around on the low block. In fact, his man-to-man defense isn't all that good-his opponent PER is actually higher than Drew Gooden's.

However, while Drew is an absolutely abysmal help-side defender, Andy is one of the league's best, despite his inability to block shots. Andy is extremely quick and always active on the defensive end, which allows him to contest shots. Additionally, he is one of the league's best at drawing the charge, which is actually more effective than a block(the offense never gets it back after an offensive foul), and very seldom fouls. For all these reasons, the Cavaliers are much, much better with Varejao on the floor than they are with Gooden.

So, in conclusion, the conventional wisdom is correct; Varejao is much more valuable than Gooden. Deep down, while they may attempt to play dumb, the Cavaliers know that; so does the rest of the league. They're right, but for the wrong reasons.

The Adventures of Mike and Flip

I've already sort of written this and put it on RCF, but I feel badly about not having a new post up yet(coming tomorrow), so I decided I'd put this up for you guys. Anyways, I was thinking about our needs this offseason and had a revelation:

1. Mike Brown is, as we all know, offensively challenged, and needs an assistant who can put in a better offense.

2. We need to improve our offense while remaining a slow-it-down, half-court team so that we can keep our defense intact, since it wins championships and all those things.

3. Flip Saunders is the best half-court offensive mind in the league.

4. Flip Saunders might not have a job next year, thanks to LeBron pulling 29 straight points out of thin air. If he misses just one more of those impossible shots, Flip probably would still have his job. I'm sure he'll never think about that again.

I was just getting into my daydream of the improbable-but-still cool mix of Mike (defensive master) Brown and Flip (offensive genius) Saunders when I realized that Mike Brown and Flip Saunders would be the most hilarious coaching tandem of all time. If we did end up with the Brown/Saunders tandem coaching us, we would also have to hire a 3rd coach, who would be a guy named Rick or Joe who would have the following qualifications: He watches basketball and is not a complete idiot. Seeing as to how both Flip and Brown are basketball's answer to Rain Man, this position would be crucial for in-game decision-making. Without a common sense coach, here's how I would imagine this marriage going:

(Game 5, NBA Finals. Thanks to Flip's brilliant offensive sets and Mike's defensive rotations, the Cavs are tied 2-2 with the Spurs, and the score lies at 96-96 heading into the final minute. Mike Brown calls 1 of the Cavs' remaining 2 timeouts.)

Mike: Okay, the game is tied. If we win this, we probably win the championship. This is an important time-out. In fact, I better make it a double. (goes over to official, takes last remaining time-out.)

LeBron: That was our last time-out. Now we can't set up a play for the rest of the game.

Mike: (grimaces)

Flip: I notice they've been loading up the strong side on LeBron. (looks up at clock, notices it's crunch-time.) Oh Jesus, I can't fail again. Please god, help me this one time.

Mike: It's okay, I've got some plays in my "motion" offense to deal with that. LeBron, catch the ball 30 feet away from the basket on the strong side, and hold it there. The defense will set up a double-team. When they do that, fire a skip pass to Z, who will be 20 feet away from the basket on the other side. When the defense rotates over to Z, he'll hand it to Eric Snow, who's been hiding behind Z-we'll take them by suprise. From there, he'll pump-fake and have a wide-open 22-footer with a hand in his face. Any questions?

Larry Hughes: I have a better play. When LeBron gets doubled, I'll stand 10 feet away from him at the 3-point line, pump-fake once, and get a contested 20-footer.

Mike: That is a great play.

LeBron: When was the last time you made that shot?

Larry: March 8, 2007.

Danny Ferry(wearing a T-shirt that says "I COULDN'T OFFER MICHAEL REDD OR RAY ALLEN MAX MONEY" on one side and "WE DID NOT HAVE THE ASSETS TO COMPLETE A SIGN-AND-TRADE FOR JOE JOHNSON"): Please, just sit down.

LeBron: Let's keep thinking.

Flip(chewing on own arm): If we use shooters to space the floor, it should give LeBron enough room to operate on a pick-and-roll and get to the hoop.

LeBron: That sounds good. Let's go out there with me, Donyell, Pavlovic, Boobie, and Andy.

Flip(pacing nervously): Wait...that's exactly who they'd EXPECT us to send out in this situation.

Mike: My thoughts exactly. Let's send out Zydrunas, Snow, Hughes, LeBron, and David Wesley. That's some good defense right there. God, I love defense. (Orgasmic Grimace)

Flip: When they get the ball, we should switch to zone. The zone is money. When I inherited the best defensive team in the NBA, I put in a lot of zone defenses. We might have given up more points, but they were the right kind of points-zone points. Also, we should put Marshall in to play defense on Duncan.

Mike: That makes no sense at all. I like it. How did you decide your rotations in Detroit?

Flip: Well, I gave Rasheed 35 minutes a game because he said he'd kill me. Chris Webber was our best scorer, so I didn't play him much. I put in Jason Maxiell a lot-he's only 6-7, but he can defend the paint because he's from Cincinatti. Lindsay Hunter has naked pictures of my wife and Larry Brown, so I give him crunch-time minutes. Chauncey is Mr. Big Shot, so I always play him in the clutch. Carlos Delfino is good, but he has stupid hair. That's why I couldn't take out Tayshaun all series, even though he may or may not have thrown the series. I play McDyess as much as I can, because he's slow. Flip Murray is a solid backup guard, so I don't play him. I'm the only Flip in this town. How dare he take my name? (sighs) My middle name is failure. (goes into fetal position)

Wesley(Coming from broadcast booth): I can defend Tony Parker. He likes to go to his right off a high screen, and I used to shut down Tiny Archibald. Holy christ, I am freaking ancient.

Flip: If I lose this game, my wife is going to make me sleep outside.

Damon Jones: You need shooters? Put Damon Jones in the game? Damon Jones will MAKE IT RAIN! Damon Jones should have won the 3-point contest. Damon Jones might not be in the top 10% in the NBA in 3-pointers made or 3-point percentage, and he might get more open looks than anyone in the league from 3, but that's because Damon Jones is TOO GOOD to make open 3s. But I can't be doin' that anymore. I play with my head. You see me psyche out Chris Webber that one time? He was gettin' ready to shoot a free throw, and Damon Jones put the routine on him, and it was like psychological warfare, like straight-up Hunt For Red October type-shit, and he was all like scared, but he made the free throw 'cause he was lucky, don't nobody make easy free throws when Damon Jones is in the house. Now I'm like a coach. A player-coach. Like Bill Russell up in here, 'cept I'm prettier and funnier. Damon Jones is the man. During halftime, I talked to that one guy from Entourage about gettin' a cameo, like Vince could be walkin' down the street, and I'd just drain a 3 from inside my Escalade, and Turtle would be like "Damn, it's Damon Jones, Player-Coach!", and then I'd go 1-on-1 with Eric, and I'd win, 'cause he's short, and then his girlfriend would be like "Damn, Damon Jones! You is hot!" That last part wouldn't even be in the script, but...(Dwayne Jones picks up Damon Jones, takes him outside of the huddle, and points him towards the water cooler. Damon continues to talk.)

LeBron: Anyways, here's what's going to happen. Andy, you're going to set a pick for me on the strong-side, and then roll hard to the bucket. If they double-trap, you're getting the pass. I NEED YOU TO ROLL HARD! (LeBron puts his finger in Andy's chest for emphasis, leading Andy to instinctively flop over the bench and into the 2nd row of the stands.) Donny, you'll be on the weak side. If I pass it to you, will you hit it?

Donny: Hellllll yes. Donny's always down for a blaze. Normally, I'd wait until the end of the game, or halftime, but I'm down for it during a timeout. Pollard hooked me up with some great stuff.

Drew Gooden: LeBron, more people are named James then are named LeBron. Your last name is more of a first name than your first name. Also, Sasha looks like a vampire.

Mike Brown(Breaks clipboard, puts on red pair of glasses to show anger, grimaces angrily): LISTEN UP! THE GAME IS ON THE LINE! TAKE THE GAME! We need a plan! Now, we can't just go out there, space the floor with shooters, and give the ball to LeBron!

Flip: (weeps softly)

LeBron: Wait, why don't we just do that?

(huddle breaks.)